For every risk and risk scenario identified in the previous risk identification stage, the risk analysis process carries out a detailed (and if possible quantitative) estimation of the probability of its occurrence and the severity of the potential impacts1)EC (2010). Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER. Brussels, 21.12.2010 SEC(2010) 1626 final..
This step builds on the risks identified.
A risk value is the result of a combination of the probability of a certain hazard and its consequences on an exposed object and can, for example, be expressed in terms of low, intermediate, high and very high. Determining this value includes the process of defining indicators for risk components, gathering data and aggregating indicators and risk components. This is a considerable task in the development of an adaptation strategy, but will provide important information on the actual vulnerability of the area or asset. The first step in a risk analysis is a thorough preparation.
Quantitative risk assessment
The risk value for each climate hazard is calculated as: hazard impact x probability of occurrence. The focus lies, therefore, in determining this probability and impact for each hazard that has been identified. To assess the intensity and probability of a hazard, the specific hazard scenario under examination has to be defined first. For example, the scenario might be a five day period of extreme precipitation resulting in fluvial flooding. The scenario can be based on historical data from prior occurrences or on (future) projections. If multiple hazard scenarios are to be examined, intensities and probabilities might have to be estimated multiple times, once for every hazard scenario.
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Supporting tools and methods
The IVAVIA tool supports the user in performing a risk-based Vulnerability Assessment by facilitating the understanding of cause-effect relationships of climate change, identify geographical hotspots of vulnerability and risk, and assess what impact on people, economy, infrastructure and built-up area under study can be expected now and for the future due to the changing climate
3Di is an interactive model for water management and can map out water flows and the effects of flooding, heavy precipitation and drought, both for the current situation – for example during heavy rainfall – and for climatological scenarios in urban and rural environments.
CLIMADA is a probabilistic natural catastrophe damage model, that also calculates averted damage (benefit) thanks to adaptation measures of any kind (from grey to green infrastructure, behavioural, etc.). It is based on the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) Methodology, Method is very quantitative and requires a high level of expertise to operate.
Blue green dream is a tool used in a commercial consultancy process that calculate how adaptation measures influence water, energy, comfort and financial costs/savings. It supports the modelling and calculation of water management situations before and after adaptation measures have been taken.
This method thoroughly describes the steps to take to identify and analyse risks for civil protection.
Footnotes [ + ]
|1, 4.||↑||EC (2010). Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER. Brussels, 21.12.2010 SEC(2010) 1626 final.|
|3.||↑||Kok, Huizinga, Vrouwenvelder, and Barendregt, Standaardmethode 2004: schade en slachtoffers als gevolg van overstromingen, Ministerie van verkeer en waterstaat, 2004|