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Home / Assess climate risk / Scoping / Non-climate trends

Non-climate trends

Goal

Managing the impacts of climate change is not a stand-alone issue for a city or asset manager. Other external trends will affect the city as well. These trends will be listed here so that they can be taken into account in further steps in the decision making process.

Preconditions

There are no apparent preconditions.

Outcomes

A list of external trends and activities that need to be considered when drafting the adaptation strategy and a description on how they affect the strategy.  Be aware that these external trends and activities can point out stakeholders which should be considered in the creation of a climate adaptation plan.

Guidelines

Non-climate-related trends could also increases the probabilities, intensities and, hence, the risks of climate hazards. These trends are called stressors. Also, policies could be in place that affect the future vulnerability or impact of future climate on the city. To determine external trends affecting the city or asset, a good overview of the current situation is required. Involving various city department, such as the Environmental department, the Emergency department, and departments responsible for social and economic matters, and possibly consulting external parties, such as universities and knowledge institutes, and inquiring after their long-term visions and goals enhances the development of an extensive and complete list of relevant trends.

This can be done, for example, by;

  • Interviewing subjects, or;
  • Organising a workshop in which a scenario analysis is conducted in a participatory way.

Trends that can be mentioned in the overview can include:

  • Regional/national/international policies;
  • Economic;
  • Mobility;
  • Technical;
  • Energy;
  • Social.

Experiences

No experiences available yet.

Supporting tools and methods

RESIN IVAVIAi

IVAVIA is a systemic methodology for conducting a risk-based process for assessing impacts and vulnerabilities of urban areas and their infrastructure related to consequences of Climate Change.

How to use
  • Consult the IVAVIA guideline and follow the steps described in Module 0, 1 and 2.
  • By creating impact chains, you will get insights in what non-climate trends and development influence your climate goals.
  • Record the results in your workspace.
  • Optional: download the graphical impact chain diagram and upload it in your work space.

PESTEL analysisi

A PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal) analysis is a method used to analyse and monitor the macro-environmental factors that may have a profound impact on an organisation’s performance. Focused at organisations, this method is not specifically designed to function in the context of a city, but it can provide structure in finding which non-climate trends could influence the adaptation goals and how.

How to use
  • Use the full list of PESTEL factors (at bottom of page) as basis
  • For each of these factors, determine their relevance for your adaptation goals
  • Do this, as suggested in the guidance above, in a participatory way with the stakeholders involved in these trends
  • Record the results in your workspace

Assess climate risk

Scoping

Problem definition

Climate threat

Non-climate trends

Stakeholder analysis

Time horizon

Context

Awareness

Shared awareness of the problem

Shared awareness of need for coordinated action

Role definition

Role distribution

Role commitment

Risk assessment

Risk identification

Risk analysis

Risk Evaluation

Goal definition

Goal setting

Goal conditions

Baseline

Define indicators

Determine baseline performance

Determine baseline of other relevant factors

Commitment

Getting commitment

Communication

Develop communication plan

Develop adaptation approaches

Role definition

Role definition for adaptation approaches

Exploration of adaptation approaches

Generate list of appropriate approaches

Select adaptation approaches

Select adaptation approaches

Commitment

Getting commitment for adaptation approaches

Communication

Update communication plan

Prioritise adaptation options

Role definition

Role definition for prioritising adaptation options

Generate options for adaptation approaches

Generate options for adaptation approaches

Prioritising adaptation options

Choose methodology and criteria

Assess adaptation options

Check for compliance with requirements

Identify interactions

Select adaptation options

Select optimal set of options

Commitment

Getting commitment for adaptation options

Communication

Update communication plan

Develop implementation plan

Role definition

Role definition for the implementation plan

Implementation plan

Financial consequences

Timeline, roles and responsibilities

Social consequences

Risk consequences

Monitoring and evaluation plan

Define the evaluation process

Define evaluation frequency

Identify roles and responsibilities

Commitment

Getting commitment for the implementation plan

Communication

Update communication plan

RESIN Project @2017