Having identified a problem in Problem definition, this step concerns the exploration of the underlying causes of this problem and gaining preliminary insight in their severity. With regards to climate change in Europe, five climate threats can be distinguished:
Having a clear Problem definition is essential for this step, as this determines what climate changes relate to the problem. Climate changes can be labeled a threat or not, depending on the defined problem at hand. Identifying the climate threats that might impact the city or asset requires an understanding of local circumstances such as geography, past extreme events and local/regional climate projections. This information needs to be available to successfully finish this step.
Outcomes
The outcome is a list of climate threats that could potentially affect the city or asset, including a description of local historical events (frequency and severity) and a first insight in future occurrences (likelihood and potential impact), resulting in a first indication of the risk of a threat.
Guidelines
To start identifying climate threats, one could gather data on recent and historic hazard events in the city. The city administration or asset manager can gather information themselves, making use of the various tools that are available (see below), or they can hire experts and consultants, e.g. universities and knowledge institutes, to help them identify relevant threats. Be aware that you will need to consider hazards both from a current and future perspective – both are necessary. The current perspective is based on records and experience of hazard events, while the future perspective is where future climate scenarios need to be introduced.
Information about past occurrences of the hazards and the past trends regarding the relevant drivers should be ‘easily available’. If you are lucky, the environmental department within the city or of superordinate administrative levels will be able to provide information such as:
the historical return periods (expected frequencies) of the respective hazards,
the past intensities (e.g. high water marks, precipitation in l/sqm/h, wind forces (1-12)),
Aside from historical information, initial information about expected future climate change-related developments should be collected. Climate change can increase the probabilities, intensities and, hence, the risks of the identified hazards happening. We term climate-related trends as drivers and they generally include: sea-level rise, increased temperatures, lack of precipitation, increase of precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilisation. For each of the climate threats that are deemed relevant for the problem, a initial estimate should be drawn up for:
Probably, such information has already been acquired within the city departments or at regional level. Experts from city departments or regional authorities may support you in checking if the existing information fits the purpose, or if updates or extensions would be adequate. Points of contact include the Environmental department, the Emergency department, and departments responsible for social and economic matters of your city as well as universities and knowledge institutes.
If this information is not available yet, workshop(s) can be organised with experts determining the potential (but realistic) impact of the scenarios. In these workshops one looks for the attendance of:
Managers of critical infrastructure of at least the types of infrastructures that are likely to be affected by the threat
Crisis managers
Government
The step will result in an overview of the expected risk due to each of the threats (e.g. in terms of: none, low, intermediate, high).
Experiences
Bratislava’s climate threats
In Bratislava, majority of the information used for vulnerability assessment was coming from the statistical yearbooks of the Capital of the Slovak Republic Bratislava, which is published by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. For additional information it is often necessary to contact the national or regional authorities that deal with monitoring climate change related indicators, such as anomalies in weather, history of natural hazards (such as floods, extreme weather events, droughts, etc.) historical records and forecasts on city demographics, economic development and critical infrastructures, natural resources, land-use and urban environment. You can also contact universities or research institutes in your city (but also outside your cities) and ask for opensource research results or publications or other information that may help you compose of basis of knowledge for your case. By approaching these different actors your also start building your stakeholder network. Their participation is an extremely important aspect in the later stages of the adaptation process.
Paris’ climate threats
The City of Paris identified 12 types of impacts affecting it. Eight of them are climate hazards, whilst four are related to resource scarcity. In addition, 13 sectors which are or may be impacted were identified. The results showed that so far Paris’ critical infrastructure systems have worked reliably and have shown to be resistant towards past extreme weather events. But climate change and resource scarcity, combined with urbanization and an increase in population density vigilance must be paid where parts of the city wide system appear to be more vulnerable than others. Five major issues emerged:
Heat waves, which may possibly exacerbate the urban heat island effect
Floods , following heavy rains, run-off or flooding from the Seine River
Droughts, which may impact on the city’s water sources, notably from 2050 onwards
Pressures on food and energy resources
Biodiversity preservation throughout the city preservation
The study by the City of Paris called for further in-depth studies on health risks caused and aggravated by climate change impacts and a deteriorating air quality, on the robustness of the insurance system of the city administration, residents and companies who are being affected by these impacts as well as on how climate change is leading people to migrate elsewhere (Mairie de Paris, 2012).
Building on this framework and context, GM’s first climate changerisk assessment of critical infrastructure was undertaken as part of the Horizon 2020 RESIN project. The aims to:
This experience point within the E-guide relates to step one above only. Broadly, six extreme weather and climate change hazards fell within the scope of the assessment:
The starting point for the risk assessment was to identify a range of relevant extreme weather and climate change impacts that have the potential to affect GM’s critical infrastructure. The UK Climate ChangeRisk Assessments, from 2012 and 2017, were key sources used to identify these impacts. These large scale assessments, which involved input from numerous experts, included critical infrastructure as a constituent theme. They resulted in the identification of climate change impacts considered to be of particular importance to a range of critical infrastructure sectors. Drawing principally on the outputs of these assessments, in addition to locally focused input from a GM steering group set up to support the RESIN case study, 36 impacts were selected.
The European ClimateRisk Typology, developed within the RESIN project, includes a range of indicator data linked to climaterisk. Here, climaterisk is a function of climate hazards, and exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. The European ClimateRisk Typology indicators were developed around this risk-based approach. Projections are provided for two IPCC scenarios, RCP4.5 (medium greenhouse emissions) and RCP8.5 (high greenhouse emissions), for the future period 2036-2065 with respect to the control period 1981-2010. The indicators can be utilised to help decide which climate threats to include within the adaptation planning process.
The indicator data is housed within an online portal that provides data and functionality to describe, compare and analyse climate threats in European cities and regions. The climaterisk typology portal enables users to assess the indicator data for their location, and to consider this relative to the other 1342 NUTS3 regions, giving a sense of the relative significance of the issue in a European context. By doing so, this can help to improve understanding of the potential threat posed by the climate projections or the degree to which people and infrastructure are exposed to current fluvial flooding and future sea level rise. Through the use of data such as this, the typology indicators enable planners and decision makers to assess the future climate characteristics of the relevant NUTS 3 area(s) of interest. It is important to note that the typology indicators are developed at the NUTS 3 scale. NUTS3 regions are a population-based classification system, and contain between 150,000 – 800,000 people. There are 1342 NUTS3 regions in Europe. The typology indicator is therefore most relevant for strategic climate changeadaptation, and to highlight the need for finer local scale studies where climate threats are present at the NUTS 3 scale.
Guidance
To acquire insights in the climate threats that might affect your region, the following steps can be taken:
Fluvial flooding is perhaps Europe’s most a high profile climate changehazard due to the visible and damaging impacts that it creates. Fluvial flooding occurs when watercourses (rivers, streams) overflow and inundate the surrounding area. Fluvial flooding can occur as a result of drivers including heavy rainfall and also spring snow melt. Indicators are provided by the European ClimateRisk Typology that related to projected future rainfall volume and intensity accounting for climate change, and also exposure to current fluvial flooding. Here, exposure refers to the extent to which receptors (e.g. people, infrastructure, assets) are located in areas that could be affected by fluvial flooding.
Reviewing these indicators can inform decisions as to whether fluvial flooding should be addressed within the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether fluvial flooding represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-Score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making
Pluvial flooding, or surface water flooding, is caused by excessive rainwater runoff that overwhelms the capacity of drainage systems. Pluvial flooding is a growing threat to European cities and urban areas.
Reviewing these indicators can inform decisions as to whether pluvial flooding should be addressed within the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether pluvial flooding represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-Score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making.
Precipitation projection indicators alone will not provide a full picture of the degree to which pluvial flooding is a significant hazard locally. Consideration of other indicators can further inform decisions on whether this climatethreat should be include within the adaptation planning process, especially those concerning urban land use characteristics. Indeed, the interaction between rainfall and urban form, including factors such as the amount of greenspaces and impermeable surfaces, is key to understanding pluvial flooding. Projected changes in population density can therefore be useful to consider as this highlights the potential for urban densification and a corresponding increase in hard surfaces. The European ClimateRisk Typology includes indicator data on each of these themes, which can further support the assessment of whether pluvial flooding is a climatethreat that should be included in the adaptation planning process.
Coastal flooding can be caused by storm surges, which can occur when low pressure combines with strong winds to drive water towards the coast line resulting in elevated water levels. If this coincides with a high tide, the magnitude of flooding will be greater. Coastal flooding may also be driven by sea level rise linked to climate change. Indicator data is available via the European ClimateRisk Typology on both of these drivers of coastal flooding. Some of the indicators relate to potential exposure to coastal flooding associated with sea level rise. Here, exposure refers to the extent to which receptors (e.g. people, infrastructure, and other assets) are located in areas that could be affected by coastal flooding, in this case related to a 1 metre rise in sea level.
Reviewing these indicators can inform decisions as to whether coastal flooding should be addressed within the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether coastal flooding represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-Score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making.
High temperatures and heat waves have the potential to cause negative impacts on people and infrastructure, although in some regions of Europe increasing temperatures may have a positive impact on the agricultural sector and in terms of reducing effects on human negative health. There is no universal standard definition of a heat wave, although they are generally regarded as periods of extremely high temperature that exceeds a certain threshold (which varies depending on location and sector being considered) for a set number of days.
Reviewing these indicators can help to determine whether high temperatures should be addressed within the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether high temperatures represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making.
Consideration of other indicator themes alongside those related to high temperatures can also aid decisions on whether high temperatures should be include within the adaptation planning process. Here, indicators concerning the demographic characteristics of the population are particularly relevant. For example, young and elderly people are more prone to negative health impacts arising from exposure to high temperatures. The European ClimateRisk Typology includes indicator data on current and projected proportion of the population under 15 and over 64 years of age, which can be utilised in this way to help determine whether high temperatures is an issue to build into the adaptation planning process.
Droughts are defined differently according to whether they are meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, environmental or socio-economic. According to the European Environment Agency 1)http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/river-flow-drought meteorological drought concerns ‘precipitation well below average’, hydrological drought relates to ‘low river flows, lake and groundwater levels, agricultural drought is measured according to ‘soil moisture deficit’, environmental drought is determined according to ‘impact on ecosystems’ and socio-economic drought occurs when there is ‘impact on economic goods and services’. Water scarcity is related to drought, and can often exacerbate its effects. The European Environment Agency notes that water scarcity arises in many of Europe’s regions due to an imbalance between water supply and demand. Data on the following indicators, developed within the European ClimateRisk Typology, can support decisions as to whether drought should be addressed within the adaptation planning process.
Reviewing these indicators can inform decisions as to whether drought should be addressed within the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether drought represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-Score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making.
However, indicators on consecutive dry days cannot themselves demonstrate whether drought is an issue of concern for a particular area. Other factors should also be considered, for example whether the number of consecutive dry days is projected to increase in an area where drought is already a problem. Socio-economic factors can also intensify the risk of droughts occurring. The European ClimateRisk Typology includes data on relevant indicators including projected future population change and projected change in population density. This data can provide further insights into the importance of drought as a climatethreat to be considered within the adaptation planning process.
Reviewing these indicators can inform decisions as to whether extreme cold should be addressed within the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether extreme cold represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-Score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making.
Climate change projections highlight that minimum temperatures are increasing, whilst the number of frost days and ice days are falling. Whilst it may seem that extreme cold will be less of a climatethreat in the future, the extent to which changes in the occurrence and extent of extreme cold events are a concern for a particular location will depend on factors including whether sectors that rely on cold weather (e.g. winter sports) or would benefit from a reduction in cold weather (e.g. agriculture) are significant to the local economy.
Storms can cause considerable harm and damage to people and infrastructure. Different features of storm events include coastal storm surges, heavy rainfall and high winds, which can be experienced separately or in combination depending on factors including location and atmospheric conditions. Coastal storm surges are caused when low pressure combines with strong winds to drive water towards the coast line resulting in elevated water levels and potentially flooding in some areas. If this coincides with a high tide, the magnitude of flooding will be greater. Storms may also be associated with intense precipitation events causing fluvial and pluvial flooding. Indicators related to both of these aspects of storms are provided within the European ClimateRisk Typology.
Reviewing these indicators can inform decisions as to whether storms should be addressed as an element of the adaptation planning process. A Z-Score is provided for each indicator. This gives an initial hint as to whether storms represents an issue of concern for the NUTS3 region and should therefore be investigated in more detail. If the Z-Score is above zero this highlights that the indicator value for the NUTS3 region lies above the average for all European NUTS3 regions. A Z-Score below zero demonstrates that the indicator value is below the European average. The higher (or lower) the Z-Score, the further the value for the NUTS3 region is away from the European average. The European ClimateRisk Typology provides further statistical data on each indicator (including minimum, maximum, mean, median and standard deviation), and related maps and visualisations, which can support decision making.
It should be noted that relying solely on the indicators included in the European ClimateRisk Typology will not provide a definitive answer as to whether storms are a threat locally. Other issues will also need to be taken into account including the potential for high winds associated with storm events, which can cause considerable damage to people and infrastructure.
Select the city/municipality that is being studied (step 1), the relevant climatethreat (‘overstroming’, step 3), and the scenario for the current situation 2) Future scenarios for this climatethreat are not available.(Scenario ‘Huidig’, step 7).
To understand the risk this climatethreat poses on the selected area, select ‘Overlijdensrisico overstroming 2050 per jaar’3)The year 2050 has been chosen to provide a long term outlook on the effect of this climatethreat. under ‘Risks’ (Step 5). The colours on the map indicate the chance that a person in a floodprone area dies as a result of a flooding event in 2050. The risks vary from <0,1 million to > 100.000.
Download the pdf of this map or take a printscreen (step (10)
Discuss with stakeholders whether these risks are acceptable or should be addressed in an adaptation strategy.
Select the city/municipality that is being studied (step 1), the relevant climatethreat (‘Wateroverlast’, step 3),
To understand the risk this climatethreat poses on the selected area, two scenarios can be created:
Select the scenario ‘W+ 2050’4)The year 2050 has been chosen to provide a long term outlook on the effect of this climatethreat. (step 7) and ‘1:100 Bui’ under ‘Effects’ (Step 4). The colours on the map indicate the amount of runoff (mm per m2) during an extreme rainfall event of 88 mm in 24 hours, which expected to occur once every 100 years.
Select the current scenario ‘Huidig’ (step 7) and ‘1:10 Bui’ under ‘Effects’ (Step 4). The colours on the map indicate the amount of runoff (mm per m2) during an extreme rainfall event of 54 mm in 24 hours, which expected to occur once every 10 years.
Download the pdf of this map or take a printscreen (step (10)
If necessary, discuss with experts what the consequences of these runoffs would be for the city/asset.
Discuss with stakeholders whether these risks are acceptable or should be addressed in an adaptation strategy.
Select the city/municipality that is being studied (step 1), the relevant climatethreat (‘Droogte’, step 3), and the scenario ‘W+ 2050’ (step 7).
To understand the risk this climatethreat poses on the selected area, select ‘Droogtestress’ under ‘Effects’ (Step 4). The colours on the map indicate the maximum yearly water deficit (millimeter) of a continuous stretch of grass for a period of 10 consecutive days. This can be used as an indicator for water stress in agricultural and natural areas.
Download the pdf of this map or take a printscreen (step (10)
If necessary, discuss with experts what the consequences of these results would be for the city.
Discuss with stakeholders whether these risks are acceptable or should be addressed in an adaptation strategy.
Select the city/municipality that is being studied (step 1) and the relevant climatethreat (‘Hitte’, step 3)
To understand the risk this climatethreat poses on the selected area, two scenarios can be created:
Select the current scenario ‘Huidig’ (step 7) and ‘Oppervlakte hitte-eiland Dag’ under ‘Effects’ (Step 4). The colours indicate the difference in surface temperature with the area surrounding the city during the day (surface heat island).
Select the ‘W+ 2050’scenario (step 7) and ‘Aantal nachten boven 20 graden’ under ‘Effects’ (Step 4). The colours indicate the number of nights the minimum air temperature will not drop below 20 degrees Celsius which will affect night’s sleep.
Select the ‘W+ 2050’scenario (step 7) and ‘Aandeel 65plus’ under ‘Gevoelige functies’ (step 5). The colours indicate the percentage of elderly people (aged 65 and higher), who are most sensitive to heat stress, in a certain neighbourhood.
Download the pdf of this map or take a printscreen (step (10)
If necessary, discuss with experts what the consequences of these results would be for the city.
Discuss with stakeholders whether these risks are acceptable or should be addressed in an adaptation strategy.
RAMSES Urban climate projections and climate impact detection
Detailed, step-by-step description of steps to take intended to provide a methodology to carry out a first assessment and keep track of the climatic changes in a city and to understand how these changes will impact the urban and social fabric.
Go to the ‘Urban climate projections and climateimpact detection’ worksheet which is provided in an annex of the handbook and follow instructions.
Record the results in your workspace,
Risk zone map
Risk Zone Map provides the ability to explore inundation risk up to 30 meters across the world’s coastlines as well as local sea level rise projections at over 1,000 tide gauges on 6 continents.
Enter your region or city in the box at the top right of the screen
Select the amount of sea level rise you want to calculate for with the slider at the left of the screen
Process the results in your workspace data
Optionally, download the map with the ‘download map image’ button and store it in your workspace
RAMSES Determining key climate risks for cities
The RAMSES ‘Determining key climate risks for cities’ worksheet is a step-by-step description of steps to take to identify the main risks facing your city.
Open it and go to the ‘Urban climate projections and climateimpact detection’ worksheet which is provided in an annex of the handbook and follow instructions.
Record the results in your workspace,
INTACT Extreme weather maps
The INTACT ‘Extreme weather maps’ page represents an on-line visual map of the expected change in 47 weather indicators for temperature, precipitation, wind and combinations thereof for the short (-2040), mid- (-2070) and long-term (-2100) period. The data encompassess a roughly 30x30km grid over all Europe.
Read the instructions that are collapsed at the top of the page (1) and follow them
First select the time period you’re interested in, then select whether you would like to see temperature, precipitation or other types of indicators
Then select the most relevant indicators for your climate threats. To see the meaning of the abbreviation, select one and see the legend for a definition or visit this page for an overview of all indicators and their meaning.
Zoom in and out and pan to the region you’re interested in and click any cell to see the value of the indicator
Choose ‘delta’ (2) for most reliable results. To know the expected value of the selected indicator in the future, add the displayed value to the current value. The ‘climate’ value in this tool is based on an estimate for the current value and less precise than adding the delta value to the local value you can get from your meteo institute.
Draw your conclusions on expected change in likelihood and intensity of extreme weather
Use the Windows ‘snipping tool’ or any other screen capture program to record the results in a way you can add them to your workspace
Record your gathered information and conclusions in your workspace